As the new year approaches, the investment newsletters with the best track records of success in both up and down markets are on the whole bullish, MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert notes.
According to Hulbert, the average recommended exposure to the domestic equity market among the newsletters making his 2010 “Honor Roll” is 82%, significantly higher than it was last year at this time, when the average was just 63%.
Hulbert’s “Honor Roll” is comprised of newsletters that have a market-beating track record in both and up down markets — criteria that only about 12% of the newsletters he tracks meet, he says. “The services that have made past years’ Honor Rolls have proceeded, on average, to outperform those that failed to make the grade,” he notes.
Nine newsletters made the grade for the 2010 Honor Roll; in his article, Hulbert focuses on the five that employ market-timing. Here’s a sample of what these top newsletters have to say about what to expect going forward:
- Bob Brinker’s Marketimer: Brinker’s model portfolios are fully invested, and he says the upside potential for the S&P 500 next year would involve gains between 6% and 13%.
- The Buyback Letter: Editor David Fried recommends that clients invest 100% of any money allocated to equities that is otherwise sitting in cash, Hulbert says.
- Cabot Market Letter: Editor Michael Cintolo is bullish, Hulbert says, though he’s keeping 30% of the newsletter’s model portfolio in cash.
- No-Load Fund Analyst: Editor Stephen Savage sees gains for U.S. stocks over the next five years, but also thinks those gains will be below historical averages. He’s underweighting U.S. equities, Hulbert says.
- Sound Advice: Editor Gray Cardiff is more bullish on U.S. stocks, with about 75% of the securities in his model portfolio being U.S. equities. He doesn’t think the rally is ending, foreseeing nothing worse than “a few so-so days”, Hulbert says.