David Rosenberg, the long-time bear who turned bullish fairly recently, says he’s getting frustrated with the US economy.
“I’m reconsidering in the sense that I don’t think we’re going to see a significant rebound — call it something better than 3 percent for the second half of the year,” Rosenberg told CNBC. “There was a point at which I thought that was achievable, especially because of the job gains we’ve seen. … But what’s happening is that the savings rate in the household sector is going up. … The spending numbers are lagging well behind whatever we’re seeing in unemployment and income, and that’s caused me to shave back what I think was an above-consensus view for the second half of the year.”
Rosenberg thinks we may soon see a correction for stocks, but all of this hasn’t turned him back into a bear. “If you’re going to turn bearish on equities outright, you’ve got to have a view that the Fed is going to drain liquidity outright, flatten the yield curve and that recession is around the corner,” he said. “Because outside of that — you might get corrections along the way … but as long as the Fed is keeping the system flush with liquidity and we don’t slip into recession, the path of least resistance is going to be up for the markets.”