During a panel at the Future Investment Initiative this month, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio shared his belief that some of the market’s enthusiasm will wane this year.
“The markets won’t be as ebullient in 2021,” Dalio argued, adding that a pick-up in growth and inflation will be accompanied by a rise in deficits: “The U.S. will have to sell a lot more bonds to the rest of the world.” He explained, however, that there might not be enough demand for those bonds, which might require the Fed to purchase more of them.
“It will be a very interesting and challenging year,” according to Dalio.
BlackRock’s Larry Fink, another panel participant, questioned whether wage growth is being underestimated as we rebuild our economy post-pandemic, noting that we are facing $2 trillion in deferred maintenance in our infrastructure in the U.S. He said that in 2022 and 2023, our country will be building a “new regime,” adding that he and Dalio “grew up in an era of inflation.”
Regarding the effect of Brexit on the European economy, Thomas Gottstein of Credit Suisse asserted his belief that while Europe was hard-hit in the short term by Brexit and then again by the Covid-19 pandemic, he believes that over time the EU will do fine and that the difficulties provoked more intensive collaboration across EU countries.