Bonnie Baha, head of global developed credit at DoubleLine Capital LP, said “I think there is a high probability of an accident” if the Fed raises rates in 2015. She said that a rate hike would be “like putting your foot on the brake when there’s no gas in the car to begin with,” suggesting it could trigger a “tightening cycle” and the Fed might then have to backtrack.
DoubleLine has a strong record, with its flagship fund beating 97% of peers over one, three, and five years.
Baha said she expects “more of the same but worse” for corporate bond investors in 2016. She said companies are borrowing too much and pointed to energy as particularly problematic. “Right now, to step into this, you’d be catching a falling knife,” she opined. “With oil at $40 a barrel, these people can’t make it . . . At some point there are going to be some bargains out there, but we’re not stepping into that now.” She pointed to closed-end bond funds as a good alternative.