A recent article in The Wall Street Journal suggests that if Joe Biden is elected president, the stock market could react with a 10% dip, but that over a four-year term, “there is reason to believe that the total return on stocks, including reinvested dividends, will average about 10% a year, as they have for nearly a century.”
The article notes that a Biden presidency could bring increased regulation and higher taxation. However, it adds, “if a President Biden can control the federal budget deficit, if he can forge better relationships with America’s trading partners, if he can reverse some of President Trump’s anti-immigration policies, if he can bring a less combative atmosphere to Washington and the nation,” there is reason to believe a 10% stock market average return is possible.
The article adds that Biden’s ambitious spending plans on green energy, health care and infrastructure could even result in returns closer to 15% annually.
Biden would also be helped by the fact that “support for the American stock market remains strong,” the article concludes, adding that despite the impact of the pandemic, many U.S. companies “are in remarkably good shape, especially when it comes to technological prowess and global competitiveness.”